Firstly, context. A brief perspective of what is happening in the construction industry as a whole:
Global construction industry overview:
GlobalData has revised downwards its forecast for global construction output growth in 2019 to 2.7%, which will be the slowest pace of growth in a decade. Its central forecast is for global construction output growth to edge up to 3.2% in 2020 and then to stabilise at 3.4% over the remainder of the forecast period, which runs to 2023.
UK construction industry overview:
Predictions for the future are not looking positive according to the latest IHS Markit/CIPS release due to the Brexit uncertainty, with September’s construction sector results having ‘the second fastest fall in new orders since March 2009 and the financial crisis’.
The Construction Products Association (CPA) has also downgraded its forecast for construction output growth in 2020 to 0.5%. They have also become more pessimistic about 2021 with output forecasts dropping from 1.4% growth to 0.9%.
BIM careers perspective:
Many thanks again to our brethren at JohnsonBIM for this information – this is real world data compiled by the people who live, breathe, eat and sleep BIM recruitment. Not disinterested researchers paid to do a quick survey with a fancy marketing team.
Click here for the latest ‘build’ salary guide for BIM specialists in the UK.
According to Mike Johnson at JohnsonBIM: ‘…we’re not in as bad a place as the rest of the industry but demand is declining almost right across the board. Project completions outnumber project starts so there is less need to increase headcount. Nevertheless, where there are new projects, the need for project BIM capability continues to increase as contracts become more onerous’.
Who is in most demand?
‘Although decreasing, the highest demand is still for anyone earning less than £50k – ideally a BIM Manager with overall project responsibility (but at £50k this is an unrealistic expectation) or a Coordinator with some project delivery experience and ‘on the way up.
This is the same pattern as last quarter and, most likely, a continuing trend until the supply dries up and/or new projects outnumber project completions.’
See our Q2 salary update for more detail on why this trend is happening.
‘It is noteworthy how many more companies are increasing the graduate talent pool. This hiatus is a great opportunity to home grow affordable BIM talent.
Unfortunately, the need for firmwide, strategic BIM / digital intelligence continues to decline. Those with it don’t need it (or are even getting rid of it), those without it are either shunning it until confidence returns, subbing it out to specialist consultancies or employing ‘affordable’ talent that lacks experience. At least it looks like they have BIM capability for PQQs. I hope procurement teams start challenging this fake BIM charade and, if they want better, smarter assets, look deeper for proven commitment to digital DNA throughout the fabric of the business.’
Summary:
This table gives you a crude overview of the current supply and demand trend and the impact on salaries. Much more detail below…
| DEMAND | SUPPLY | SALARY | |
| BIM Leaders: | Stable at very low | Increasing | Stable |
| BIM Managers: | Decreasing and low | Increasing | Decreasing |
| BIM Coordinators: | Decreasing | Stable | Stable |
| BIM Technicians: | Stable | Stable | Stable |
| BIM Apprentices: | Increasing | Increasing | Stable |
And now, the detail:
BIM LEADERS:
Demand: No change from last quarter. Stable – at very low, almost zero. One or two genuine roles have cropped up this year, but most are token gestures to appease procurement teams.
Regionally: These roles tend to be near to head offices and so are city centric. London is pretty full now so less opportunity there than elsewhere.
Sectors: Design: stable; Build: stable; BIM Consultancy: stable.
Salaries: With minimal demand we can’t say if salaries for new firmwide leaders have gone up or down. Existing title holders are getting salary increases in line with the rest of the business, but these are not as generous as they were unless the company is bucking the caution trend.
BIM MANAGERS:
Demand: Lower than last quarter and decreasing due to less new projects and more supply from completing ones.
Regionally: With demand in London particularly slow, regional demand is on par. Candidates with experience and in non-city locations are rare, so demand is shifting to less experienced coordinators.
Sectors: Design: decreasing; Build: decreasing; BIM Consultancy: decreasing.
Salaries: More supply, less demand = lower average salaries.
BIM COORDINATORS:
Demand: As with BIM Managers, less projects mean lower demand.
Regionally: With demand in London particularly slow, regional demand is on par.
Sectors: Design: decreasing; Build: decreasing; BIM Consultancy: decreasing.
Salaries: Supply is on par with demand, so salaries are stable with occasional modest rises.
BIM TECHNICIANS:
Demand: Stable but showing signs of increasing as budgets demand lower cost.
Regionally: Demand is higher outside London. Our thinking is that London has reached saturation point.
Sectors: Design: stable; Build: stable; BIM Consultancy: increasing.
Salaries: Supply is just about on par with demand, so salaries are stable but showing signs of increasing as demand improves.
BIM APPRENTICES
Demand: Increasing as companies become more aware of the need for ‘digital natives’ and can keep the bean counters happy by reducing headcount cost.
Regionally: As with BIM Technicians, it looks like London is saturated and most demand is across the rest of the UK.
Sectors: Design: decreasing; Build: increasing; BIM Consultancy: increasing.
Salaries: Stable but should rise. However, with supply higher (more awareness, more courses = more graduates) than demand, they are still stubbornly low.
FUTURE GAZING: Where might the best opportunities be:
Although construction activity growth in Western Europe is forecast to decelerate in 2020, according to GlobalData, there are pockets of growth forecast in the UK:
Warehouse work to rise by 20% in 2020
The outlook remains good for warehouse construction, forecast to increase by 20% in 2020. Owing to the development of automated warehouses by online retailers which use higher-tech operations in logistics, the scale and value of projects have increased.
Infrastructure work to rise by 3.7% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2021
Despite delays on major projects, there are pockets of growth in infrastructure, with offshore wind projects underway or starting soon worth over £1 billion in value. Combined with a fall in the strike price government pays for wind-generated energy to around a third cheaper than energy generated at Hinkley Point C, there’s further reason for optimism within offshore wind and an indication that renewable energy is gaining a competitive market edge.
Public housing starts are forecast to rise by 2.0% in 2020
The public housing sector’s prospects are more positive due to grant funding on the Shared Ownership and Affordable Homes Programme, although there are signs of vulnerability as housing association development is increasingly linked to the slowdown in the general housing market.
And, for the travellers amongst us:
Again, thanks to GlobalData:
In India, positive developments in economic conditions, improvement in investor confidence and investments in transport infrastructure, energy and housing projects have helped the construction industry regain growth momentum.
The pace of growth in sub-Saharan Africa will be particularly strong. Ethiopia will be Africa’s star performer with steady acceleration in Nigeria.
In China, where the authorities are stepping up investment in infrastructure to prevent a continued slowdown, growth will remain positive, contributing to a slight acceleration in growth in total output in the emerging markets.
Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have suffered from weakness in oil prices in recent years and government revenues have been greatly reduced. Assuming oil prices stay relatively high, large-scale investment in infrastructure projects – mostly related to transport – will be a key driving force behind the growth in the region. However, the construction booms in a number of markets, notably Qatar, appear to have run their course.
But, avoid Australia! Their construction industry has plummeted, and GlobalData now expects a 6.3% fall in 2019, in line with the sharp contraction in buildings work and a slower than expected rebound in infrastructure.
CONCLUSIONS for the career centric from Mike Johnson
‘The next year is going to be tough for the construction industry. Hopefully, a new government will start to generate stability, confidence and investment into the construction industry but until that happens make sure you are careful. Do not move for the sake of money, there are too many armwavers out there and it is not likely to be a good career move.
If you have to change jobs this is my advice:
1: Focus on your career. Scratch below the surface and find out if companies really are genuinely committed to digitalisation. Do they just need a token BIM person to win contracts or are they going to invest in the future – and you? Ask them what good looks like in 5 years and what your part in that journey will be. Why not? It’s your career!
2: Look at the data. If you have the luxury of being unfettered and can travel, explore BIM opportunities in India, Africa, China and the Gulf – but make sure the experience will be valid and useful in your next job! If you can’t travel, look at the projects companies specialise in. Warehousing and infrastructure may not be sexy but they look safe for the short / medium term and some of the best, BIM committed companies are in these sectors and have good career opportunities.
3: If you’re not sure, ask an expert. If you get lost on a journey do you keep going around in circles or do you ask for direction? JohnsonBIM is as good a TomTom® for BIM as you will find.’
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